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The US branded coffee shop industry, one of the largest in the world, is showing signs of strain as growth slows amid rising costs and a tough economic climate. According to new industry research, the market is now worth around $58.5 billion, achieving 6.6% annual sales growth — a dip from last year’s 7%.
Despite the cooling pace, the market continues to expand in size and scale. Net outlet growth reached 4.2% in 2025, bringing the total to more than 45,200 stores across 588 brands, although this marks a slowdown from the 5.1% growth recorded in 2024.
Expansion Meets Resistance
Big players are still adding stores. Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew each expanded by more than 100 outlets over the past year. Yet, broader growth has been curbed by record-high green coffee costs, persistent inflation, and a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which together create unprecedented pressure on operators.
Drive-thru coffee chains are leading the charge. Dutch Bros surpassed 1,000 locations, while Arkansas-based 7 Brew posted the fastest expansion rate in the sector. Black Rock Coffee Bar, following its $294 million IPO in September 2025, is also preparing for nationwide growth.
Adding to the competitive landscape, China’s Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee have entered the US market. At the same time, more than 50 independent café businesses grew to five or more outlets, officially stepping into the branded chain category.
Consumers Pay More, Confidence Drops
Sales figures were propped up by higher menu prices. Over the last year, the average cost of a 16oz latte, cappuccino, or filter coffee rose by 3%, while iced coffee went up by nearly 5%.
Although more than half of US industry leaders reported positive sales, fewer than a third described overall trading conditions as favorable — down sharply from 2024. Just 20% of executives expect conditions to improve in the coming year, and more than one-third now predict that coffee shop sales will lag behind US GDP growth.
Non-Dairy Options Go Mainstream
One of the most notable shifts in consumer trends has been the removal of surcharges for plant-based milks. Eighteen of the 20 largest coffee chains — including Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros — now serve oat, almond, and other dairy alternatives without extra charges.
Still, nearly two-thirds of industry leaders believe that surcharges remain justified due to higher costs, and more than half of customers indicated they would pay extra for their preferred alternative milk. Almond milk continues to dominate demand.
Outlook to 2030: Resilience and Adaptation
Even with mounting headwinds, the sector shows long-term resilience. Market forecasts project that the US branded coffee shop industry will exceed $63 billion within a year and reach $82.4 billion by 2030, supported by outlet growth to more than 57,700 stores nationwide.
Industry experts say growth will increasingly depend on portfolio adjustments and new strategies to meet evolving customer expectations in a challenging economy.
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