Dubai – Qahwa World
Dünyanın en büyüklerinden biri olan ABD markalı kahve dükkanı sektörü, artan maliyetler ve zorlu ekonomik iklim nedeniyle büyümenin yavaşlamasıyla zorlanma belirtileri gösteriyor. Yeni sektör araştırmasına göre, pazar şu anda yaklaşık 58,5 milyar dolar değerinde ve yıllık satışlarda %6,6 büyüme kaydedildi - Geçen yılki %7'lik orana göre bir düşüş.
Despite the cooling pace, the market continues to expand in size and scale. Net outlet growth reached 4.2% in 2025, bringing the total to more than 45,200 stores across 588 brands, although this marks a slowdown from the 5.1% growth recorded in 2024.
Expansion Meets Resistance
Big players are still adding stores. Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew each expanded by more than 100 outlets over the past year. Yet, broader growth has been curbed by record-high green coffee costs, persistent inflation, and a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which together create unprecedented pressure on operators.
Drive-thru coffee chains are leading the charge. Dutch Bros surpassed 1,000 locations, while Arkansas-based 7 Brew posted the fastest expansion rate in the sector. Black Rock Coffee Bar, following its $294 million IPO in September 2025, is also preparing for nationwide growth.
Rekabet ortamına ek olarak Çinli Luckin Coffee ve Cotti Coffee ABD pazarına girdi. Aynı zamanda, 50'den fazla bağımsız kafe işletmesi beş veya daha fazla satış noktasına ulaşarak resmi olarak markalı zincir kategorisine adım attı.
Consumers Pay More, Confidence Drops
Sales figures were propped up by higher menu prices. Over the last year, the average cost of a 16oz latte, cappuccino, or filter coffee rose by 3%, while iced coffee went up by nearly 5%.
Although more than half of US industry leaders reported positive sales, fewer than a third described overall trading conditions as favorable — down sharply from 2024. Just 20% of executives expect conditions to improve in the coming year, and more than one-third now predict that coffee shop sales will lag behind US GDP growth.
Non-Dairy Options Go Mainstream
One of the most notable shifts in consumer trends has been the removal of surcharges for plant-based milks. Eighteen of the 20 largest coffee chains — including Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros — now serve oat, almond, and other dairy alternatives without extra charges.
Still, nearly two-thirds of industry leaders believe that surcharges remain justified due to higher costs, and more than half of customers indicated they would pay extra for their preferred alternative milk. Almond milk continues to dominate demand.
2030'a Genel Bakış: Dayanıklılık ve Adaptasyon
Even with mounting headwinds, the sector shows long-term resilience. Market forecasts project that the US branded coffee shop industry will exceed $63 billion within a year and reach $82.4 billion by 2030, supported by outlet growth to more than 57,700 stores nationwide.
Industry experts say growth will increasingly depend on portfolio adjustments and new strategies to meet evolving customer expectations in a challenging economy.
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