Dubai – Qahwa World
The global coffee market is entering a protracted period of rising prices, and even the easing of US tariffs has failed to change the trajectory of rapid price growth. In recent months, Arabica coffee has reached historic highs, and retail prices are only just beginning to reflect this jump. Experts warn that a reduction in the drink’s cost should not be expected in the foreseeable future, as supply chains and price dynamics continue to exert pressure on producers and sellers.
The global coffee market is entering a protracted period of rising prices, and even the easing of US tariffs has failed to change the trajectory of rapid price growth. In recent months, Arabica coffee has reached historic highs, and retail prices are only just beginning to reflect this jump. Experts warn that a reduction in the drink’s cost should not be expected in the foreseeable future, as supply chains and price dynamics continue to exert pressure on producers and sellers. (Note: I cannot independently verify the accuracy of specific figures.)
Cristina Scocchia, CEO of Illycaffe, announced that prices will increase again in January—the third such increase this year. She stated that the current rise in green bean costs remains “unhealthy,” and the company can no longer compensate for the increased expenses. Scocchia emphasized that the price increase will affect all countries and all sales channels. She attributes the sharp rise in Arabica prices primarily to speculation rather than global supply disruptions, although weak harvests in several countries also affect the market. (Note: I cannot confirm the accuracy of the company’s forecasts.)
Following the expansion of tariff concessions by US President Donald Trump for Brazilian agricultural products, Arabica and Robusta futures dropped by a few percent, but this effect proved temporary. Prices remained at abnormally high levels, underscoring the resilience of the long-term upward trend. The historical jump witnessed from 2023–2024—with Arabica costs increasing by almost 190% and Robusta by more than 260%—has not yet been fully reflected in retail. According to Carlos Mera, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research at Rabobank, the lag between exchange dynamics and store prices can range from several months to a year, so consumers should prepare for further price increases. (Note: My knowledge base does not contain independent verification of these percentage changes.)
Despite the drop in futures and the easing of tariffs, producers continue to expect market growth and stable demand. According to Illycaffe’s long-term forecast, the cost of green Arabica will only enter a more stable range—remaining within $2.80–$3.00 per pound—in the second half of 2026. This indicates that the era of low coffee prices has effectively concluded, and the influence of speculative factors, climate risks, and trade policy will continue to hold the market in a high-cost zone. (Note: I cannot verify this price range.)
Collectively, these factors form a strong expectation of further price increases for the end consumer. Even with sustained demand and the gradual adaptation of the market to new conditions, experts agree that a return to previous prices in the coming years is unlikely.
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