Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures recorded a broad decline on Tuesday, with both arabica and robusta ending the session lower as expectations for stronger global supply grew. The market reacted notably to the European Parliament’s decision to postpone enforcement of its deforestation regulation for one year, a move that keeps coffee shipments flowing from major producing regions in Africa, Indonesia and South America. This delay helped ease concerns about restricted supplies and contributed to the price drop.
Additional downward pressure came from Vietnam, where industry officials indicated that the new robusta harvest is progressing smoothly and exports are set to rise. Early-season dry weather has allowed farmers to speed up harvesting, adding to expectations of increased availability from the world’s largest robusta producer.
In Brazil, rainfall in Minas Gerais remained well below historical averages, a factor that continues to influence sentiment around arabica crops. At the same time, exchange-certified stocks monitored by ICE continue to decline. The reduction is partly attributed to lower U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee following recently imposed tariffs, which have led to a significant drawdown in warehouse inventories.
However, the market also weighed future supply expectations. A recent outlook suggested that Brazil could see a substantial increase in production for the 2026/27 season, particularly in arabica. Vietnam’s export performance has already strengthened this year, and early projections for the upcoming season indicate another increase if favorable weather persists.
Global export figures from the International Coffee Organization showed a slight fall in shipments for the current marketing year, providing some support to prices. Earlier in the season, Brazil’s crop agency also revised downward its estimates for arabica and total coffee output in 2025.
Long-term projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture point to record global coffee production in 2025/26, driven primarily by robusta, while arabica may see a small decline. The agency also expects global ending stocks to grow compared with the previous year.
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