Dubai – Qahwa World
On Friday, coffee prices fell sharply, with March arabica futures (KCH26) down 1.91% and January robusta futures (RMF26) falling 2.70%. Arabica reached a seven-week low.
The decline followed an executive order signed by President Trump late Thursday, exempting Brazilian food products from tariffs, including the 40% duty on Brazilian coffee. Prices dropped further after the Brazilian real weakened to a five-week low against the dollar, boosting the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee exports.
Weather factors also influenced the market. Heavy rains are forecast across Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions into next week, which benefits crop development but puts downward pressure on prices.
Robusta prices found some support from Vietnam, where heavy rainfall delayed harvesting in Dak Lak, the country’s largest coffee-producing province. Additional showers may damage crops further, providing some upward pressure on prices.
Inventory trends on ICE exchanges were mixed. US tariffs had previously limited Brazilian coffee imports, reducing stocks. As of Thursday, ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a four-month low of 5,567 lots. US buyers have been avoiding new Brazilian coffee contracts due to tariffs, tightening domestic supply, as roughly one-third of unroasted coffee in the US comes from Brazil. From August to October 2025, US imports of Brazilian coffee fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.
Rainfall data also influenced the market. Brazil’s largest arabica region, Minas Gerais, recorded 19.8 mm of rain in the week ending November 14 — 42% of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia.
On the supply side, analysts at StoneX forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica — a 29% increase year-on-year.
Vietnam’s coffee production is also rising. January–October 2025 exports increased 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 crop year is projected at 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) expects production to be 10% higher than last year if weather conditions remain favorable. Vietnam remains the world’s largest robusta producer.
Global supply data show mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–September) fell 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.
Brazil’s Conab forecasted a smaller 2025 arabica crop, reducing it by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while total coffee production was adjusted down 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.
The USDA projects global coffee production in 2025/26 at a record 178.68 million bags, with arabica down 1.7% to 97.022 million bags and robusta up 7.9% to 81.658 million bags. Brazil’s crop is expected to rise 0.5% to 65 million bags, and Vietnam’s output is forecast up 6.9% to 31 million bags, a four-year high. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 22.819 million bags, up 4.9% from the previous year.
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