São Paulo – September 16, 2025 – Qahwa World (EFICO’s Coffee Bean Scene) – There is an old saying in the coffee world: “When Brazil sneezes, the rest of the coffee world catches a cold.” The phrase remains true today. Accounting for nearly 40% of global production, Brazil continues to dictate the rhythm of supply, prices, and the flavor profiles that reach consumers around the globe. At times, it offers stability; at others, it sparks volatility across the market.
The past has proven this influence repeatedly. The frost of 1975 sent international prices soaring, while the droughts of 2014 and 2021 created deep uncertainty for exporters. Currency swings have only added to the turbulence, reshaping contracts and global trade dynamics. Brazil remains, without doubt, the heartbeat of the coffee industry.
Harvest Progress and Outlook
By the end of August, Brazil’s 2025 harvest was virtually complete, with 100% of robusta and 98% of arabica collected. Rainfall—up to 50mm in arabica areas and 30mm in robusta regions—did little to damage bean development. Average bean size is larger than last year, and mild winter conditions extended the processing season, allowing more washed and semi-washed coffees to enter the market. Light frosts in June caused only localized impact, with no major losses.
The 2025/26 crop is now projected at 62.3 million bags—down 3.4% from earlier estimates and 5.4% compared to last year. Arabica is expected at 36.5 million bags, a sharp decline of 18.4% year-on-year, while robusta will rise to 25.8 million bags, a gain of nearly 22%. Strong vegetation growth after harvest suggests excellent potential for the 2026/27 cycle, with nurseries already sold out and farmers reinvesting in renewal and expansion.
Regional Insights
South Minas Gerais, the world’s largest coffee region with 500,000 hectares under cultivation, continues to showcase both challenges and innovation. Cities like Varginha, Três Pontas, Poços de Caldas, and Guaxupé remain central hubs. While productivity averages 25 bags per hectare, EFICO’s field visits revealed stark differences between farms. Yet one constant was clear: investment in innovation, from modern warehouses to irrigation projects that allow precise fertilization and improved yields.
The Cerrado, often referred to by EFICO Brazil director João Marcos Crespo as “The Factory,” demonstrates a more industrialized approach. With 250,000 hectares—more than half irrigated—its productivity averages 35 bags per hectare, producing nearly 6 million bags annually. Regenerative agriculture is widely adopted here, both for cost savings and soil health. Farmers are also installing new high-capacity mechanical dryers, doubling efficiency compared to traditional models.
Market Dynamics
Despite decent production levels, commercialization has slowed to its lowest point in five years. Producers are financially stable and releasing coffee in small volumes, waiting for favorable prices. The introduction of a 50% U.S. import duty on Brazilian coffee in August has added further uncertainty to the market. Exporters are now carefully balancing procurement and sales strategies while watching international flows closely.
Overall, Brazil’s 2025 harvest stands between 60 and 62 million bags. While arabica output has dropped, robusta is filling part of the gap, and investments in quality continue to push screen sizes above last year’s levels. Market volatility is expected to persist at least through October, as the flowering season and rainfall patterns will set the tone for the 2026 crop.
Final Note
From the innovation-driven Cerrado to the tradition-rich farms of South Minas, Brazil’s coffee sector remains both resilient and deeply influential. As the new harvest begins arriving in early October, one thing is certain: when Brazil sneezes, the entire coffee world feels it.
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