Vietnam Harvest Update 2025/26: Delayed Start, Strong Outlook
Dubai – Qahwa World
With global markets closely monitoring Vietnam, recent heavy rains from Storm 15 have attracted significant attention among those keen to understand the weather’s impact on supply. We caught up with Khoi Nguyen, Trading Manager at Sucafina Vietnam, for an update. Khoi tells us that despite rain-driven delays and labor tightness, the outlook remains positive, with production increases expected and quality indicators trending upward.
- Production on the rise: Vietnam’s combined Robusta & Arabica 2025/26 Coffee crop is forecast at 31.2 million bags, up 12% year on year.
- Heavy rains delaying progress: Excessive rainfall has slowed harvesting (14% of Robusta completed vs. ~25% historical average), compounded by labor shortages.
- Strong quality prospects: Favorable cherry development and solid farm investment support expectations for improved overall quality.
Harvest Status: Delayed but Resilient
Despite the weather challenges making headlines, Vietnam’s coffee harvest is showing remarkable resilience. Khoi and the team project a total production of 31.2 million bags – a 12% increase over last year. This includes 29.9 million bags of Robusta (up 11.5%) and 1.3 million bags of Arabica (up 19%). These numbers exceed our earlier forecasts (+6%) and sit well above the five-year average. Early-season agronomic conditions were favorable, and ongoing investment in farming helped set a strong foundation.
Recent weeks of intense rainfall have slowed harvesting across key Robusta regions. As of 25 November, only 14% of the crop had been harvested, compared with 17% at the same time last season. Labor availability is also lower this year, adding pressure to farm operations. However, sustained high coffee prices over two consecutive years provide farmers resources and incentives to manage these difficulties. If weather stabilizes, quality is expected to improve over last year.
2025/26 Harvest Timing
Robusta harvest is expected to peak in mid-December, with farmers busy harvesting, drying, and husking across Vietnam’s major producing areas.
Arabica harvest has reached its peak in the North (accounting for around 70% of the total Arabica crop). Central Arabica regions will peak early-December.
Both Robusta and Arabica harvests should be expected to complete in late January.
Regulatory & Supplier Landscape
Two key regulatory themes affect the supply chain: a 5% VAT on green coffee was introduced in July 2025, and the evolving European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Neither has an immediate impact at the farm level.
A 5% VAT on green coffee trading has been in place since July 2025 (previously only applied to roasted). The VAT has no impact on farmers’ harvesting behavior, but it may influence how exporters manage their supplier base. While it will not impact overall pricing (as VAT is refunded at export), it adds complexity to reporting administration and reduces cash flow somewhat.
Though EUDR details and enforcement timelines remain unclear, Vietnam’s supply chain is proactive. Supplier collaboration on geodata analysis and completion of macro risk assessment data collection position shipments well for 2025 due-diligence requirements.
IMPACT Supply Chains & Sustainability
Our IMPACT verified supply chains in Gia Lai and Lâm Đồng are each progressing through audit cycles. IMPACT-verified coffees will be available starting December 2025.
In Arabica regions, we have successfully registered and audited over 1,500 new farmers in Son La and Lâm Đồng for Rainforest Alliance (RA), 4C, and C.A.F.E. Practices certifications. These farmers have also completed training on RA and other agricultural standards. Other sustainability initiatives, including composting, tree planting, GAP training, and soil sampling, continue per earlier updates.
Outlook
While heavy rains understandably raise concerns, the broader view is optimistic. Vietnam is positioned to deliver a larger coffee crop with strong quality potential, grounded in sustained farmer investment and solid production forecasts. Weather stability in December and January remains critical. If conditions normalize, the 2025/26 season could mark one of Vietnam’s strongest performances in recent years.
Farmers’ gains from two years of high prices bolster reinvestment but also elevate their pricing expectations. For roasters and traders, this underscores the importance of early engagement on volumes and quality to secure desired lots.
Despite the media spotlight on weather-related challenges, the reality is nuanced: delays and risks require careful monitoring, but strong production volumes, sound quality fundamentals, and a mature, sustainability-focused supply chain provide confidence. If you are interested in learning more about our Vietnam supply chain or booking coffee from Vietnam, reach out to your trader!
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