Dubai, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee drinkers around the world are paying more than ever for their daily brew. In the United States, the price of ground roast coffee reached $8.41 per pound in July, a record high and a 33% jump from last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Prices for all types of coffee, including instant and roasted, were also up 14.5% year-on-year in July. That made coffee the second-fastest rising item in the consumer price index, just behind eggs.
This sharp increase is the result of three main factors: extreme weather in producing countries, falling inventories, and new trade tariffs on Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter.
Weather shocks
Coffee is highly sensitive to climate conditions. Even small changes in weather can damage the crop and reduce yields.
Brazil, which produces about 40% of the world’s coffee, has faced a mix of severe drought and heavy rains in recent seasons. Experts call this pattern “precipitation whiplash.” The plants first suffer from lack of water, then get too much, leaving beans of lower quality and lower quantity.
Vietnam, the second-largest producer, had a similar problem. Its coffee production dropped by 20% in 2024 due to drought. Later, heavy rains caused further damage to the harvest.
“Coffee plants are very sensitive to their environment,” said Mike Hoffmann, professor emeritus at Cornell University. “Drought weakens the plants, then excess water comes in and harms the quality and the yield.”
Trade tariffs
On top of weather problems, trade policy is adding more pressure. The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, which could keep prices high in the U.S. and other markets.
A report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) warned in August that these tariffs would place “upward pressure” on global prices, especially since the U.S. imports about 32% of its coffee from Brazil.
Still, analysts believe big chains can manage the cost better than small buyers. For example, Starbucks might only need to raise prices by 0.5% or less to cover the tariff cost, thanks to its large size and strong purchasing power.
Low inventories
For the past few years, many coffee companies chose to run down their existing stockpiles instead of buying beans at higher market prices. As a result, global inventories are now at very low levels compared with history.
Bernstein araştırma raporuna göre, stoklar düşük olduğunda piyasa ani şoklara daha açık hale geliyor. Talep artarsa veya başka bir arz sorunu ortaya çıkarsa, fiyatlar çok hızlı bir şekilde yükselebilir.
Fiyatlar ve tüketim
The way consumers feel the price increase depends on how they buy their coffee.
At grocery stores, coffee prices usually follow commodity prices more closely. When wholesale prices go up, supermarkets often raise prices quickly. When prices fall, they may use discounts and promotions to attract shoppers.
Kahve dükkanları ve restoranlarda fiyatlar daha az değişkendir. Starbucks veya Dunkin' gibi zincirler, etkiyi birçok ürün ve pazara yayabildikleri için daha yüksek maliyetleri müşterilere yansıtmak daha uzun sürebilir.
Short-term and long-term outlook
Kısa vadede bir miktar rahatlama olabilir. Daha iyi hava koşulları ve tarımsal üretkenliğe yapılan yeni yatırımlar fiyatların biraz düşmesine yardımcı olabilir. Sürdürülebilir tarım yöntemleri ve teknoloji de verimliliği artırabilir ve arzı dengeleyebilir.
Ancak uzun vadeli tablo daha endişe verici. İklim değişikliğinin daha sık kuraklık, sel ve aşırı hava olayları getirmesi bekleniyor. Bu durum, başlıca kahve bölgelerinde üretime zarar vermeye devam edecek.
“The prices will continue to go up, in my mind,” Hoffmann said. “Climate change isn’t going away. The severity of droughts, flooding — all of that will get worse. And it’s not just coffee. It’s the whole food supply.”
Gelecek için ne anlama geliyor
The global coffee market is heading toward more uncertainty. Consumption is still growing worldwide, but production is struggling to keep up due to climate, economic, and political challenges.
This means consumers should expect coffee prices to stay higher than average in the coming years, with possible spikes whenever new disruptions occur. For farmers and producers, the situation may bring both risks and opportunities. Those who adopt technology, invest in climate-resilient farming, and improve supply chains may be able to thrive in a difficult environment.
Günlük kahve tiryakileri için "sabah fincanı" şimdilik büyük zincirlerde uygun fiyatlı kalabilir, ancak evde demleyenler muhtemelen market fiyatlarında daha büyük dalgalanmalar görmeye devam edecek.
The post Why Coffee Prices Are Rising — And What It Means for Consumers appeared first on Qahwa World.
