Kenya kahve sektöründe güçlü bir toparlanmaya tanıklık ediyor. 2025/26 pazarlama yılında üretimin %13,3 oranında artarak 850.000 altmış kilogramlık çuvala ulaşacağı tahmin ediliyor. Bu toparlanma yüksek küresel fiyatlar, hükümet reformları ve çiftçi destek programlarından kaynaklanıyor. İhracatın da %10 artması öngörülürken, iç tüketimin %6,9 artması bekleniyor. Bu umut verici göstergelerle Kenya, dünyanın en iyi Arabica kahve üreticileri arasındaki yerini geri alıyor.

High Prices and Smarter Farming Drive Kenya’s Coffee Comeback

USDA'nın Kahve Yıllık Raporu 'na (Mayıs 2025) göre, Kenya'nın kahve üretiminin 2024/25'te 750.000 çuvaldan 2025/26'da 850.000 çuvala yükseleceği tahmin edilmektedir. Çiftçiler uygun fiyatlara, daha fazla gübre uygulayarak, zararlıları daha etkili bir şekilde kontrol ederek ve Arabica'nın doğal iki yıllık üretim zirvesinden yararlanarak gelişmiş tarım uygulamalarıyla yanıt verdi.

In February 2025, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) recorded a historic high of $363 per 50-kg bag, up from $254 in October 2024. Although a slight price correction is expected in the second half of the year, prices remain favorable and have reinvigorated investment in farms.

Slight Expansion in Planted Area

While harvested area is expected to remain at 105,000 hectares, planted area will increase slightly as the Kenyan government rolls out its Coffee Expansion Program in both traditional and new growing regions across Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley Kenya. The program includes subsidized seedlings, supported by county-level grants and expanded production at the Coffee Research Institute to meet increased demand.

Urbanization Slows, Coffee Area Stabilizes

2020 ve 2024 yılları arasında, özellikle Nairobi, Kiambu ve Nyeri çevresindeki kentsel gelişim nedeniyle kahve alanı 112.000 hektardan 105.000 hektara düşmüştür. Ancak bu eğilim, durgunlaşan emlak piyasası sayesinde yavaşladı ve sektöre istikrar kazanma şansı sundu.

Marketing Reforms and Structural Overhaul

Roughly 80% of Kenya’s coffee is sold through producer cooperatives, while the remaining volume is marketed by private farms and estates. The Nairobi Coffee Exchange remains the country’s primary marketplace, handling over 90% of coffee sales.

Since 2023, Kenya has implemented significant reforms in marketing and regulation. The NCE is now under the Capital Markets Authority, which licenses brokers responsible for classification and auction procedures. There are currently 15 licensed brokers. Additionally, licensing of millers was decentralized to county governments.

A pending Coffee Bill in Parliament seeks to formalize these changes by creating a new Coffee Board of Kenya and an independent Coffee Research and Training Institute, to be funded through a coffee sales levy.

Exports Rising but Facing EU Deforestation Law

Coffee exports are expected to grow by 10% to 840,000 bags in 2025/26, up from 763,000 bags the previous year. Green beans dominate Kenya’s export portfolio, with major buyers including:

  • Avrupa Birliği: 57'nin üzerinde

  • United States: 16.75%

  • South Korea: 5.16%

  • United Kingdom: 3.43%

  • Other emerging markets: China, Australia, India

However, the upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation, taking effect in January 2026, poses a potential challenge. In response, Kenya has formed a multi-agency committee to evaluate readiness and establish compliance mechanisms.

Domestic Consumption on the Rise

Domestic coffee consumption is projected to grow by 6.9%, reaching 62,000 bags in 2025/26. This growth is driven by the rapid expansion of coffee shops, particularly in Nairobi, and a 15% surge in tourism in 2024. Kenya’s coffee culture is evolving, with increasing demand for specialty brews and locally roasted varieties.

Despite this growth, soluble coffee consumption remains low due to the lack of local processing facilities. Kenya imports approximately 45,000 bags of instant coffee annually.

Stock Levels and Imports

Ending stocks are expected to increase to 86,000 bags in 2025/26, reflecting higher production. For 2024/25, stock estimates have been revised downward to 63,000 bags due to higher exports and tighter output.

Conclusion: Kenya’s Return to Coffee Leadership

With production, exports, and consumption all trending upward, Kenya is once again asserting itself on the global coffee stage. While challenges like EU environmental compliance lie ahead, the country’s proactive reforms and farmer-focused strategies signal a new era of growth and global relevance for Kenyan coffee.

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