The global coffee market continued its complex trajectory in May 2025, with slight adjustments in prices and exports reflecting the delicate balance between improving supply chains, mixed demand trends, and broader economic uncertainties.

According to the latest Coffee Market Report released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 334.41 US cents per pound in May—slipping by just 0.4% compared to April. Despite this minor decline, prices remain significantly elevated year-over-year, standing 60.5% higher than in May 2024.

Arabica Holds Ground, Robusta Retreats

While Robusta coffee experienced a notable 3.5% price decline, dipping to 237.76 US cents/lb, Arabica varieties saw modest gains:

  • Colombian Milds: 395.59 US cents/lb (+0.4%)

  • Other Milds: 397.84 US cents/lb (+1.3%)

  • Brezilya Doğalları: 380,02 ABD senti/lb (+%0,5)

The arbitrage between New York and London futures widened by 6.6% to 143.58 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, market volatility stabilized slightly, with I-CIP intra-day variation averaging 11.1%.

Shifting Export Patterns: Brazil Slows, Africa Surges

Global green coffee exports in April 2025 totaled 10.2 million bags, down 6.8% from April 2024. The decline was largely driven by a 14.4% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robustas also decreased by 5.8%, primarily due to Brazil’s dramatic 86.4% fall in Robusta exports.

Buna karşılık, Kolombiya'nın Yumuşak Ürünler ve Diğer Yumuşak Ürünler kategorileri mütevazı bir artış gösterirken, Kenya ve Etiyopya bu artışa öncülük etti. Kenya'nın ihracatı %14 artarak ülke için 24 yılın rekorunu kırdı.

Arabica'nın toplam yeşil çekirdek ihracatındaki payı %59,9'dan %63,3'e yükselerek enflasyonist baskılara rağmen tüketicilerin daha yüksek kaliteli kahveyi tercih ettiğinin altını çizdi.

Regional Highlights

  • Africa: Exports surged 30.2% to 1.8 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda led the way, buoyed by strong harvests and high global prices.

  • Asia & Oceania: Up 8.3%, with Indonesia and Vietnam showing double-digit growth in response to elevated Robusta prices.

  • South America: Down 28.4% as Brazil’s exports fell sharply, partly due to ongoing port delays. This marked the sixth consecutive month of decline.

  • Mexico & Central America: Grew 4.1%, potentially signaling the start of a new up-cycle after years of decline.

Roasted and Soluble Coffee Rising

Processed coffee exports reflected growth as well. Soluble coffee exports rose 6% to 1.13 million bags in April 2025, with Brazil leading the segment. Roasted coffee beans surged 16.4%, reaching 87,619 bags compared to 75,253 bags in April 2024.

Çözünebilir kahvenin toplam kahve ihracatı içindeki payı bir önceki yıl %8,8'den %9,5'e yükselerek kullanışlı kahve ürünlerine yönelik küresel talebin arttığını gösterdi.

Futures Market Update: Major Contract Shift Ahead

A major structural change was also announced: ICE Futures U.S. will phase out the Coffee “C” contract by March 2028. The new Arabica contract will be priced in USD per metric tonne and allow the use of Flexible Intermediate Bulk Containers (FIBCs), aiming to modernize the coffee futures market.

Karışık Piyasa Sinyalleri: Önümüzde Ne Var?

The report identified several bullish and bearish indicators shaping the near-term outlook:

Bullish:

  • Strong U.S. consumer spending supported by low household debt.

  • JDE Peet’s announcement of possible retail price hikes, signaling sustained demand.

Bearish:

  • USDA tahminleri Brezilya (+%0,2) ve Peru'dan (+%8) gelen arzın arttığını gösteriyor.

  • Neutral El Niño conditions bode well for harvests in Latin America.

  • Geopolitical improvements in the Red Sea (Houthi ceasefire) are enhancing logistics and reducing shipping delays.

  • ABD'nin ticaret tarifeleri ve potansiyel durgunluk etkilerine ilişkin endişeler devam etmektedir.

Inventory Rebound

Sertifikalı kahve stokları Mayıs ayında toparlandı:

  • Arabica (New York): +9.4% to 0.93 million bags

  • Robusta (London): +28.1% to 0.92 million bags

These increases suggest improved logistics and short-term supply availability.

Conclusion

Mayıs 2025, küresel kahve piyasasına bozulma yerine istikrar getirdi. Arabica küresel ihracatı domine etmeye devam ederken, Afrikalı ve Güneydoğu Asyalı üreticiler küresel fiyat dinamiklerinden yararlandı. Piyasa yılın ikinci yarısına geçerken, fiyatların ve talebin nereye gittiğini ölçmek için dikkatler hava koşullarına, ekonomik sinyallere ve gelişen vadeli piyasa yapısına çevrilecek.

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