Dubai, 16 August 2025 – (Qahwa World) – A light frost in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region has raised new concerns for the country’s 2026 coffee crop. The event struck at a particularly delicate moment, with early flowering underway in several producing zones, leaving trees highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations.
Light but Significant Frost
In Patrocínio and surrounding areas of Cerrado Mineiro, temperatures dropped to around 1.9°C, causing frost that touched the tops of flowering trees. Gláucio de Castro, president of the Cerrado Coffee Growers’ Federation, confirmed:
“This frost was mostly a capote type affecting the canopy of trees… but it still has an impact.”
While local reports describe the damage as limited and patchy, farmers remain on high alert as any further cold fronts could magnify risks to the 2026 harvest.
2025 Harvest Nears Completion
According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, with arabica at 91% and robusta at 99%. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest cooperative, reported that about 80% of its members’ crops had been harvested by August 8. Despite the steady progress, agronomists noted during Cooxupé’s technical forum that “the yields this season are not very good,” underscoring the ongoing climatic pressures.
Market Reaction
Küresel kahve piyasaları don haberine hızla tepki verdi. 14 Ağustos'ta New York'taki vadeli arabica kontratları %1,4 değer kazanırken, Londra'daki robusta kontratları %4,7 artışla son iki ayın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Aynı zamanda, ICE tarafından izlenen arabica stokları son 15 ayın en düşük seviyesine gerileyerek arzın daraldığı sinyalini verdi.
International Responses
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Colombia: The Coffee Growers’ Committee of Caldas noted that “unusually low temperatures in Brazilian regions revived fears of late August frosts and contributed to heightened price volatility.”
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Vietnam: Economic outlets and the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA) linked the sharp rise in prices on August 14 directly to “frost reports from Brazil,” calling the event a key driver of the market rally.
Climate Meets Trade
Don olayı ticaret gerilimlerinin tırmandığı bir döneme denk geldi. Ağustos başından bu yana ABD'nin Brezilya yeşil kahvesine %50 gümrük vergisi uygulaması, bazı ithalatçıların netlik beklerken siparişlerini dondurmasına neden oldu. Bu politika hamlesi, hava şokuyla birleşerek piyasadaki dalgalanmayı arttırdı ve küresel arz güvenliğine ilişkin soruları gündeme getirdi.
An Uncertain Outlook
Although the latest frost was described as light and localized, the flowering stage is highly sensitive, and even small temperature drops can jeopardize fruit set. Analysts stress that the coming days will be decisive: another cold front could significantly affect Brazil’s 2026 crop, altering the balance of global supply and demand at a time when inventories are already strained.
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