Coffee prices are under ongoing pressure as Brazil’s harvest continues to advance, influencing both arabica and robusta markets. On Thursday, September arabica futures (KCU25) closed down by 1.60 cents (-0.55%), while September ICE robusta futures (RMU25) edged up by $25 (+0.69%), signaling mixed market performance.
The Brazilian coffee harvest remains a key driver behind price movements. Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, reported that 31% of its harvest was completed as of June 27—down from 42% at the same point last year. Dry weather forecasts for the coming days in major growing regions are expected to accelerate the pace of picking.
Meanwhile, data from Safras & Mercado indicates that Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest was 35% complete by June 11. The robusta harvest reached 49% completion, while the arabica harvest lagged at 26%, slowed by heavy rainfall in key areas. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region—received 5 mm of rainfall during the week ending June 28, amounting to 714% of the historical average, alleviating earlier dryness concerns and supporting crop development.
Market sentiment is also affected by global production outlooks. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 production at 65 million bags, a modest 0.5% increase year-over-year. Vietnam’s output is projected to rise by 6.9% to a four-year high of 31 million bags. These figures reinforce expectations of ample supply, contributing to downward price pressure.
Değişen dinamiklerde stoklar da rol oynuyor. ICE tarafından izlenen arabica stokları Mayıs sonunda 4,75 ayın en yüksek seviyesi olan 892.468 torbaya ulaştı ve 842.223 torba ile yüksek seviyesini koruyor. Buna karşılık, robusta stokları geçen hafta 5.108 lot ile altı haftanın en düşük seviyesine geriledi, ancak o zamandan bu yana hafif bir toparlanmayla 5.153 lota yükseldi ve robusta fiyatlarına sınırlı destek sağladı.
Export figures add another layer to the market picture. Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee export council, reported that May exports of green coffee fell by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags—an indicator that could offer some bullish influence on prices. On the other hand, Vietnam continues to see the impact of past droughts. Its 2023/24 coffee production dropped by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons—the smallest harvest in four years. Exports also declined: 2024 shipments fell by 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons, and the January-May 2025 export figure is down 1.8% year-over-year.
Looking ahead, the USDA’s global outlook signals higher supply. Its biannual report estimates 2025/26 world coffee production will rise by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags. This includes a 1.7% decline in arabica output to 97.02 million bags and a 7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.66 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to grow by 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.
Despite the broader increase in supply, consultancy Volcafe forecasts a deeper arabica deficit for the 2025/26 season, projecting a shortfall of 8.5 million bags—widening from the 5.5 million bag deficit estimated for 2024/25. If accurate, this would mark the fifth consecutive year of arabica deficits, potentially setting the stage for renewed volatility.
Özetle, kahve piyasaları Brezilya'nın hasat hızı, iyileşen hava koşulları, dalgalanan stoklar ve değişen küresel tahminlere göre şekillenmeye devam ediyor. Robusta fiyatları Vietnam'daki sıkılaşan stoklar ve hava koşullarının etkisiyle hafif destek işaretleri gösterirken, arabica özellikle dünyanın en büyük üreticisi Brezilya'dan gelen güçlü arz beklentilerinin ağırlığını hissetmeye devam ediyor.
The post Coffee Prices Face Continued Pressure Amid Brazil Harvest Progress and Global Supply Outlook appeared first on Qahwa World.
