Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee futures ended the week lower, with arabica and robusta extending their decline for a third straight session. The market reacted to signals from Washington suggesting that tariff adjustments on imported agricultural products, including coffee, may be announced soon.
Comments from U.S. Treasury officials earlier in the week hinted at new measures targeting goods not produced domestically, adding pressure to coffee prices.
Expectations for a larger Brazilian crop also pushed the market downward. Initial projections for the 2026/27 season point to a strong harvest, supported by favorable rainfall across major coffee-producing regions such as Minas Gerais.
Vietnam, the world’s leading supplier of robusta, continues to expand its shipments. Recent export figures and early production outlooks indicate another year of solid supply if weather conditions hold steady.
Despite these bearish factors, certified stocks at ICE have been falling sharply. The decline is linked to reduced U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee following the 50% tariff, which has tightened available inventories in the American market.
Global supply trends remain mixed. The International Coffee Organization recently reported a slight annual decline in exports, while analysts continue to track potential weather risks in Brazil associated with a developing La Niña pattern.
Longer-term outlooks from international agencies project an increase in world coffee production for the 2025/26 season, mainly driven by growth in robusta output, even as arabica production is expected to edge slightly lower. Ending stocks are forecast to rise as well.
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